These are important documents because they, in an ideal world, should be a major factor when deciding on federal funding for sports across the nation.

In the past, these plans have not been successful in attracting more adults to community sports. How does this plan compare? Will it be different?

A history of plans with mixed results

Since 2001, the governments have published four national plans. They all tried to encourage more people over 15 years old to take up sports. But they expressed their aim in different ways:

The second goal of the 2001 Plan, under the Coalition Government, was “significantly increasing the number people participating in sports right across Australia”.

Ten years later, the Labor Government adopted a new plan. Its first goal was to “increase the participation in sports and active recreation”.

In 2018, the Coalition government announced its Sport 2030 Plan, aiming to “make more Australians more active and more often.” The target was to increase participation by 15 percent by 2030.

This brings us to the latest discussion document by the current government. Its goal is to “maximize access and rates for participation in sport and physical activities”.

The Australian Sports Commission (the government’s primary sports promotion agency) has also released Australia’s Sports Participation Strategy, which aims to encourage “greater participation and engagement in sport throughout the nation.”

Read more: What makes kids want to drop out of sport, and how should parents respond?

Stagnant sporting numbers

While the goals of all plans are noble, they have not yet succeeded in increasing participation.

The diagram below uses data from Australian Sports Commission annual surveys that include up to 20,000 adults.

This graph shows the percentage of adults who engage in physical activity and sport with varying frequencies (from three times or more a week up to no physical activity at all) between 2003-10 and 2016. (There were no similar surveys conducted in 2011-15).

Due to the different survey methodologies, it is not possible to compare results between periods. The trends in each period were the same: there was no increase in participation.

Question: Will the results of the new plan differ? Answer: Probably not.

Documents lacking data in policy documents

This plan is unlikely to be much more successful than previous efforts for many reasons.

The planning documents of the ministers and sports commissions usually fail to acknowledge the main problem: the fact that 20 years (and even more) of policy efforts have been unable to increase participation in grassroots sports in Australia.

This data is not included in any of the planning documents currently published. The two papers do not present any data about the current or previous adult participation rates in sports, despite their commitment to increase sport participation.

It is also not clear exactly what the plan will do. In the diagram, 10-15% of people do not engage in any physical activity or sport. Does the goal of the project include reducing the size of the group? The documents do not say.

Read more: Many Australian kids abused in sport won’t ever speak up. It’s time we break the silence.

On the other hand, the group that participates less than once a week could be targeted to increase the frequency of participation, thus gaining more health benefits.

Inclusion is the focus of the documents. This implies that the problem is with groups who are excluded on the basis of ethnicity, disability, or gender.

It is commendable that this focus on equity has been made. This policy was implemented in sports plans in 2001, but according to the survey results of the sports commission, participation levels have not changed.

The participation rates of the different groups have barely changed in the cases where disability and ethnicity are concerned.